Wednesday, February 2, 2011

My Republican Presidential Nomination Predictions

Since the primaries will be coming up before we know I thought I might make a few predictions just because it's long enough away to feel really cool if I get them right. I'll list the pros and cons of each candidate  (some personal views mixed with realistic winning views with voters) I think at least might run. I also excluded the ones who say they won't run like Chris Christie.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

Romney did really well last time against John McCain, but ended losing out. 

Pros: Was Governor of a usually Democratic state. Also passed near-universal healthcare system there. Might be popular with swing voters.

Cons: Probably not popular with the Tea Party crowd for the healthcare thing among other issues. Heard he's a bit of a flip-flopper as well. His Mormon faith can also alienate the ultra-Christian crowd of the GOP. 

Chance of winning primary: Good, but might be not as good with Tea Party primary power, and the overall ultra-right feeling of the GOP these days.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Pros: Did well last race, has decent knowledge. Has a good rating among Repubicans.  Not a center leaning  Republican but defiantly not a radical Tea Bagger.

Cons: Porbably would lose among moderates to Romney. Not radical enough to compete with Palin.
Chance of winning primary: low, probably will get lost in the shuffle for moderates and defaintly will get overshadowed support from the radicals. 

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 
Pros: Might win the Tea Party crowd over. Did a lot for the GOP cause to help fight Clinton in the 90's.

Cons: Been many years since he was Speaker of the House, faded in popularity, faced so much criticism that he had to resign. Also cheated on his wife, and married his mistress, twice. Too far right for swing voters.

Chance of Winning Primary: Kinda of long shot hope. Might have better hopes if Sarah Palin doesn't run.

Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina

Pros: From a very red state, easily won his last senate race. Really popular with the Tea Party. Plans to make his term the last in the Senate so a presidential run would make since right now.

Cons: Very far right, homophobic, social conservative views not probably popular with swing voters. But he doesn't speak so much to dismay you as generally too far right to the average newspaper reader.

Chance of winning primary: Decent, but will probably be overshadowed by Palin for the tea baggers, and Romney by the moderates.
Congressman Ron Paul of Texas

Pros: Has a hardcore fanbase, would be popular for fiscal issues. Stays true to his philosophy.

Cons: Too liberal on social issues for most GOP voters, a congressman doesn't provide much cred, too much anarchist-ish views for some people.

Chance of winning primary: Low, Paul has ran time and time again and always gets his ass kicked by racist neo-cons. 

Former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin

Some might say why with all her book money that she would want to be President. Well she is still very political, and some people would love to be President just to go down in the history books

Pros: A key favorite among tea baggers, also a fan favorite for guys who just vote for her because they think she's hot.

Cons: Stupid, gets quotes wrong often, way too far right, went through major criticism for the Arizona shootings, fear inducer and exaggerating liar.

Chance of Winning Primary: If the Tea Party crowd is as powerful in the primaries as they were in the 2010 races, then she might pull this off with ease. Hopefully for the GOP moderates get out there and vote her out because she will lose hands down to Obama.  

If Palin decides to officially run I predict her victory in the primary due to Tea Party support. I expect her to make Jim DeMint her Vice Presidential Candidate. If she doesn't I expect maybe a DeMint/Paul ticket if support is extremist but if support is moderate a Romney/Huckabee ticket.

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